NFL Best Bets of the Week

NFL Best Bets

Week 11, 2022

Optimal Bets uses proprietary algorithms to calculate the win percentage and expected value for O/Us, Spreads, and Moneylines.

We’ll go through each game and pick what our models calculate to be the best bet for that game. The best bet is the bet with the highest implied bet units. We use quarter Kelly Criterion to calculate the bet units. It’s possible there are no winning bets for the game which means the implied units for all bets will be 0. In that case, we default to the bet with the highest expected value even though it’s considered to be a losing bet. The best bets are dynamic based on the week's news and lock at the kickoff.

Here were the NFL Best Bets for Week 10.



Tennessee Titans @ Green Bay Packers

Thu 8:15 PM EST

The best bet of the game for TEN @ GB is TEN ML +145. Our simulations expect this bet to win 46% of the time. This win percentage implies an expected value of $112 for every $100 bet.

The calculated optimal bet size is 2 units. Our models calculate this to be a +EV bet and consider it to be one of the top bets for Week 11.

Chicago Bears @ Atlanta Falcons

Sun 1:02 PM EST

The best bet of the game for CHI @ ATL is Under 48.5 -110. Our simulations expect this bet to win 55% of the time. This win percentage implies an expected value of $105 for every $100 bet.

There are no bets in this game with a significant edge to the bettor.

Carolina Panthers @ Baltimore Ravens

Sun 1:02 PM EST

The best bet of the game for CAR @ BAL is CAR ML +470. Our simulations expect this bet to win 26% of the time. This win percentage implies an expected value of $150 for every $100 bet.

The calculated optimal bet size is 2 units. Our models calculate this to be a +EV bet and consider it to be one of the top bets for Week 11.

Washington Football Team @ Houston Texans

Sun 1:02 PM EST

The best bet of the game for WAS @ HOU is HOU ML +140. Our simulations expect this bet to win 45% of the time. This win percentage implies an expected value of $108 for every $100 bet.

There are no bets in this game with a significant edge to the bettor.

Philadelphia Eagles @ Indianapolis Colts

Sun 1:02 PM EST

The best bet of the game for PHI @ IND is IND ML +230. Our simulations expect this bet to win 41% of the time. This win percentage implies an expected value of $134 for every $100 bet.

The calculated optimal bet size is 3 units. Our models calculate this to be a +EV bet and consider it to be one of the top bets for Week 11.

Los Angeles Rams @ New Orleans Saints

Sun 1:02 PM EST

The best bet of the game for LAR @ NO is LAR ML +115. Our simulations expect this bet to win 46% of the time. This win percentage implies an expected value of $99 for every $100 bet.

Our models calculate this to be a -EV bet which means we would avoid betting this game altogether.

Detroit Lions @ New York Giants

Sun 1:02 PM EST

The best bet of the game for DET @ NYG is NYG -3.0 -120. Our simulations expect this bet to win 53% of the time. This win percentage implies an expected value of $97 for every $100 bet.

Our models calculate this to be a -EV bet which means we would avoid betting this game altogether.

Cleveland Browns @ Buffalo Bills

Sun 1:02 PM EST

The best bet of the game for CLE @ BUF is CLE ML +300. Our simulations expect this bet to win 36% of the time. This win percentage implies an expected value of $145 for every $100 bet.

The calculated optimal bet size is 3 units. Our models calculate this to be a +EV bet and consider it to be one of the top bets for Week 11.

New York Jets @ New England Patriots

Sun 1:15 PM EST

The best bet of the game for NYJ @ NE is Over 38.0 -110. Our simulations expect this bet to win 58% of the time. This win percentage implies an expected value of $111 for every $100 bet.

The calculated optimal bet size is 3 units. Our models calculate this to be a +EV bet and consider it to be one of the top bets for Week 11.

Las Vegas Raiders @ Denver Broncos

Sun 4:05 PM EST

The best bet of the game for LV @ DEN is LV +2.5 +100. Our simulations expect this bet to win 50% of the time. This win percentage implies an expected value of $99 for every $100 bet.

Our models calculate this to be a -EV bet which means we would avoid betting this game altogether.

Dallas Cowboys @ Minnesota Vikings

Sun 4:25 PM EST

The best bet of the game for DAL @ MIN is Under 49.0 -110. Our simulations expect this bet to win 51% of the time. This win percentage implies an expected value of $97 for every $100 bet.

Our models calculate this to be a -EV bet which means we would avoid betting this game altogether.

Cincinnati Bengals @ Pittsburgh Steelers

Sun 4:25 PM EST

The best bet of the game for CIN @ PIT is PIT ML +160. Our simulations expect this bet to win 42% of the time. This win percentage implies an expected value of $109 for every $100 bet.

There are no bets in this game with a significant edge to the bettor.

Kansas City Chiefs @ Los Angeles Chargers

Sun 8:20 PM EST

The best bet of the game for KC @ LAC is LAC ML +195. Our simulations expect this bet to win 41% of the time. This win percentage implies an expected value of $121 for every $100 bet.

The calculated optimal bet size is 2 units. Our models calculate this to be a +EV bet and consider it to be one of the top bets for Week 11.

San Francisco 49ers @ Arizona Cardinals

Mon 8:15 PM EST

The best bet of the game for SF @ ARI is ARI ML +330. Our simulations expect this bet to win 34% of the time. This win percentage implies an expected value of $146 for every $100 bet.

The calculated optimal bet size is 3 units. Our models calculate this to be a +EV bet and consider it to be one of the top bets for Week 11.

Optimal Bets is not responsible for any decisions made, financial or otherwise, based on information provided by this website and application. Optimal Bets cannot guarantee the correctness of the information contained within our website and application.


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