NFL Best Bets of the Week

NFL Best Bets

Week 13, 2022

Optimal Bets uses proprietary algorithms to calculate the win percentage and expected value for O/Us, Spreads, and Moneylines.

We’ll go through each game and pick what our models calculate to be the best bet for that game. The best bet is the bet with the highest implied bet units. We use quarter Kelly Criterion to calculate the bet units. It’s possible there are no winning bets for the game which means the implied units for all bets will be 0. In that case, we default to the bet with the highest expected value even though it’s considered to be a losing bet. The best bets are dynamic based on the week's news and lock at the kickoff.

Here were the NFL Best Bets for Week 12.



Buffalo Bills @ New England Patriots

Thu 8:15 PM EST

The best bet of the game for BUF @ NE is Over 43.5 -110. Our simulations expect this bet to win 55% of the time. This win percentage implies an expected value of $105 for every $100 bet.

There are no bets in this game with a significant edge to the bettor.

Tennessee Titans @ Philadelphia Eagles

Sun 1:00 PM EST

The best bet of the game for TEN @ PHI is TEN ML +200. Our simulations expect this bet to win 41% of the time. This win percentage implies an expected value of $123 for every $100 bet.

The calculated optimal bet size is 2 units. Our models calculate this to be a +EV bet and consider it to be one of the top bets for Week 13.

Washington Football Team @ New York Giants

Sun 1:00 PM EST

The best bet of the game for WAS @ NYG is NYG ML +115. Our simulations expect this bet to win 52% of the time. This win percentage implies an expected value of $112 for every $100 bet.

The calculated optimal bet size is 2 units. Our models calculate this to be a +EV bet and consider it to be one of the top bets for Week 13.

New York Jets @ Minnesota Vikings

Sun 1:00 PM EST

The best bet of the game for NYJ @ MIN is NYJ ML +130. Our simulations expect this bet to win 44% of the time. This win percentage implies an expected value of $100 for every $100 bet.

There are no bets in this game with a significant edge to the bettor.

Jacksonville Jaguars @ Detroit Lions

Sun 1:00 PM EST

The best bet of the game for JAX @ DET is DET +1.0 -110. Our simulations expect this bet to win 56% of the time. This win percentage implies an expected value of $106 for every $100 bet.

There are no bets in this game with a significant edge to the bettor.

Green Bay Packers @ Chicago Bears

Sun 1:00 PM EST

The best bet of the game for GB @ CHI is GB -4.5 -105. Our simulations expect this bet to win 52% of the time. This win percentage implies an expected value of $101 for every $100 bet.

There are no bets in this game with a significant edge to the bettor.

Denver Broncos @ Baltimore Ravens

Sun 1:00 PM EST

The best bet of the game for DEN @ BAL is Over 38.5 -110. Our simulations expect this bet to win 60% of the time. This win percentage implies an expected value of $113 for every $100 bet.

The calculated optimal bet size is 3 units. Our models calculate this to be a +EV bet and consider it to be one of the top bets for Week 13.

Pittsburgh Steelers @ Atlanta Falcons

Sun 1:00 PM EST

The best bet of the game for PIT @ ATL is PIT +1.0 -110. Our simulations expect this bet to win 54% of the time. This win percentage implies an expected value of $103 for every $100 bet.

There are no bets in this game with a significant edge to the bettor.

Cleveland Browns @ Houston Texans

Sun 1:00 PM EST

The best bet of the game for CLE @ HOU is HOU ML +260. Our simulations expect this bet to win 33% of the time. This win percentage implies an expected value of $120 for every $100 bet.

There are no bets in this game with a significant edge to the bettor.

Miami Dolphins @ San Francisco 49ers

Sun 4:05 PM EST

The best bet of the game for MIA @ SF is MIA ML +175. Our simulations expect this bet to win 41% of the time. This win percentage implies an expected value of $112 for every $100 bet.

There are no bets in this game with a significant edge to the bettor.

Seattle Seahawks @ Los Angeles Rams

Sun 4:05 PM EST

The best bet of the game for SEA @ LAR is LAR ML +285. Our simulations expect this bet to win 35% of the time. This win percentage implies an expected value of $135 for every $100 bet.

The calculated optimal bet size is 3 units. Our models calculate this to be a +EV bet and consider it to be one of the top bets for Week 13.

Los Angeles Chargers @ Las Vegas Raiders

Sun 4:25 PM EST

The best bet of the game for LAC @ LV is LAC ML -120. Our simulations expect this bet to win 56% of the time. This win percentage implies an expected value of $102 for every $100 bet.

There are no bets in this game with a significant edge to the bettor.

Kansas City Chiefs @ Cincinnati Bengals

Sun 4:25 PM EST

The best bet of the game for KC @ CIN is CIN ML +115. Our simulations expect this bet to win 48% of the time. This win percentage implies an expected value of $103 for every $100 bet.

There are no bets in this game with a significant edge to the bettor.

Indianapolis Colts @ Dallas Cowboys

Sun 8:20 PM EST

The best bet of the game for IND @ DAL is IND ML +410. Our simulations expect this bet to win 31% of the time. This win percentage implies an expected value of $158 for every $100 bet.

The calculated optimal bet size is 3 units. Our models calculate this to be a +EV bet and consider it to be one of the top bets for Week 13.

New Orleans Saints @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Mon 8:15 PM EST

The best bet of the game for NO @ TB is NO ML +170. Our simulations expect this bet to win 43% of the time. This win percentage implies an expected value of $116 for every $100 bet.

The calculated optimal bet size is 2 units. Our models calculate this to be a +EV bet and consider it to be one of the top bets for Week 13.

Optimal Bets is not responsible for any decisions made, financial or otherwise, based on information provided by this website and application. Optimal Bets cannot guarantee the correctness of the information contained within our website and application.


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