NFL Best Bets of the Week

NFL Best Bets

Week 4, 2022

Optimal Bets uses proprietary algorithms to calculate the win percentage and expected value for O/Us, Spreads, and Moneylines.

We’ll go through each game and pick what our models calculate to be the best bet for that game. The best bet is the bet with the highest implied bet units. We use quarter Kelly Criterion to calculate the bet units. It’s possible there are no winning bets for the game which means the implied units for all bets will be 0. In that case, we default to the bet with the highest expected value even though it’s considered to be a losing bet. The best bets are dynamic based on the week's news and lock at the kickoff.

Here were the NFL Best Bets for Week 3.



Miami Dolphins @ Cincinnati Bengals

Thu 8:15 PM EST

The best bet of the game for MIA @ CIN is MIA ML +170. Our simulations expect this bet to win 42% of the time. This win percentage implies an expected value of $112 for every $100 bet.

There are no bets in this game with a significant edge to the bettor.

Minnesota Vikings @ New Orleans Saints

Sun 9:30 AM EST

The best bet of the game for MIN @ NO is NO ML +120. Our simulations expect this bet to win 50% of the time. This win percentage implies an expected value of $109 for every $100 bet.

There are no bets in this game with a significant edge to the bettor.

Buffalo Bills @ Baltimore Ravens

Sun 1:00 PM EST

The best bet of the game for BUF @ BAL is Over 51.5 -105. Our simulations expect this bet to win 51% of the time. This win percentage implies an expected value of $99 for every $100 bet.

Our models calculate this to be a -EV bet which means we would avoid betting this game altogether.

Washington Football Team @ Dallas Cowboys

Sun 1:00 PM EST

The best bet of the game for WAS @ DAL is DAL -3.0 -110. Our simulations expect this bet to win 59% of the time. This win percentage implies an expected value of $113 for every $100 bet.

The calculated optimal bet size is 3 units. Our models calculate this to be a +EV bet and consider it to be one of the top bets for Week 4.

Seattle Seahawks @ Detroit Lions

Sun 1:00 PM EST

The best bet of the game for SEA @ DET is SEA ML +170. Our simulations expect this bet to win 43% of the time. This win percentage implies an expected value of $116 for every $100 bet.

The calculated optimal bet size is 2 units. Our models calculate this to be a +EV bet and consider it to be one of the top bets for Week 4.

Los Angeles Chargers @ Houston Texans

Sun 1:00 PM EST

The best bet of the game for LAC @ HOU is HOU ML +200. Our simulations expect this bet to win 38% of the time. This win percentage implies an expected value of $113 for every $100 bet.

There are no bets in this game with a significant edge to the bettor.

Tennessee Titans @ Indianapolis Colts

Sun 1:00 PM EST

The best bet of the game for TEN @ IND is TEN ML +140. Our simulations expect this bet to win 45% of the time. This win percentage implies an expected value of $106 for every $100 bet.

There are no bets in this game with a significant edge to the bettor.

Chicago Bears @ New York Giants

Sun 1:00 PM EST

The best bet of the game for CHI @ NYG is NYG -3.0 -115. Our simulations expect this bet to win 53% of the time. This win percentage implies an expected value of $98 for every $100 bet.

Our models calculate this to be a -EV bet which means we would avoid betting this game altogether.

Jacksonville Jaguars @ Philadelphia Eagles

Sun 1:00 PM EST

The best bet of the game for JAX @ PHI is JAX ML +235. Our simulations expect this bet to win 35% of the time. This win percentage implies an expected value of $116 for every $100 bet.

There are no bets in this game with a significant edge to the bettor.

New York Jets @ Pittsburgh Steelers

Sun 1:00 PM EST

The best bet of the game for NYJ @ PIT is NYJ ML +145. Our simulations expect this bet to win 43% of the time. This win percentage implies an expected value of $105 for every $100 bet.

There are no bets in this game with a significant edge to the bettor.

Cleveland Browns @ Atlanta Falcons

Sun 1:00 PM EST

The best bet of the game for CLE @ ATL is Under 49.0 -110. Our simulations expect this bet to win 55% of the time. This win percentage implies an expected value of $104 for every $100 bet.

There are no bets in this game with a significant edge to the bettor.

Arizona Cardinals @ Carolina Panthers

Sun 4:05 PM EST

The best bet of the game for ARI @ CAR is ARI +1.5 -110. Our simulations expect this bet to win 58% of the time. This win percentage implies an expected value of $109 for every $100 bet.

The calculated optimal bet size is 2 units. Our models calculate this to be a +EV bet and consider it to be one of the top bets for Week 4.

New England Patriots @ Green Bay Packers

Sun 4:25 PM EST

The best bet of the game for NE @ GB is NE ML +360. Our simulations expect this bet to win 32% of the time. This win percentage implies an expected value of $145 for every $100 bet.

The calculated optimal bet size is 3 units. Our models calculate this to be a +EV bet and consider it to be one of the top bets for Week 4.

Denver Broncos @ Las Vegas Raiders

Sun 4:25 PM EST

The best bet of the game for DEN @ LV is DEN ML +120. Our simulations expect this bet to win 45% of the time. This win percentage implies an expected value of $99 for every $100 bet.

Our models calculate this to be a -EV bet which means we would avoid betting this game altogether.

Kansas City Chiefs @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Sun 8:30 PM EST

The best bet of the game for KC @ TB is Over 45.0 -110. Our simulations expect this bet to win 56% of the time. This win percentage implies an expected value of $107 for every $100 bet.

The calculated optimal bet size is 2 units. Our models calculate this to be a +EV bet and consider it to be one of the top bets for Week 4.

Los Angeles Rams @ San Francisco 49ers

Mon 8:15 PM EST

The best bet of the game for LAR @ SF is LAR +1.5 -110. Our simulations expect this bet to win 56% of the time. This win percentage implies an expected value of $106 for every $100 bet.

There are no bets in this game with a significant edge to the bettor.

Optimal Bets is not responsible for any decisions made, financial or otherwise, based on information provided by this website and application. Optimal Bets cannot guarantee the correctness of the information contained within our website and application.


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