NFL Best Bets of the Week

NFL Best Bets

Week 12, 2022

Optimal Bets uses proprietary algorithms to calculate the win percentage and expected value for O/Us, Spreads, and Moneylines.

We’ll go through each game and pick what our models calculate to be the best bet for that game. The best bet is the bet with the highest implied bet units. We use quarter Kelly Criterion to calculate the bet units. It’s possible there are no winning bets for the game which means the implied units for all bets will be 0. In that case, we default to the bet with the highest expected value even though it’s considered to be a losing bet. The best bets are dynamic based on the week's news and lock at the kickoff.

Here were the NFL Best Bets for Week 11.



Buffalo Bills @ Detroit Lions

Thu 12:30 PM EST

The best bet of the game for BUF @ DET is DET ML +330. Our simulations expect this bet to win 33% of the time. This win percentage implies an expected value of $143 for every $100 bet.

The calculated optimal bet size is 3 units. Our models calculate this to be a +EV bet and consider it to be one of the top bets for Week 12.

New York Giants @ Dallas Cowboys

Thu 4:30 PM EST

The best bet of the game for NYG @ DAL is NYG ML +340. Our simulations expect this bet to win 32% of the time. This win percentage implies an expected value of $140 for every $100 bet.

The calculated optimal bet size is 3 units. Our models calculate this to be a +EV bet and consider it to be one of the top bets for Week 12.

New England Patriots @ Minnesota Vikings

Thu 8:20 PM EST

The best bet of the game for NE @ MIN is Over 42.0 -110. Our simulations expect this bet to win 55% of the time. This win percentage implies an expected value of $104 for every $100 bet.

There are no bets in this game with a significant edge to the bettor.

Atlanta Falcons @ Washington Football Team

Sun 1:00 PM EST

The best bet of the game for ATL @ WAS is ATL ML +160. Our simulations expect this bet to win 40% of the time. This win percentage implies an expected value of $105 for every $100 bet.

There are no bets in this game with a significant edge to the bettor.

Cincinnati Bengals @ Tennessee Titans

Sun 1:00 PM EST

The best bet of the game for CIN @ TEN is CIN ML -110. Our simulations expect this bet to win 53% of the time. This win percentage implies an expected value of $101 for every $100 bet.

There are no bets in this game with a significant edge to the bettor.

Chicago Bears @ New York Jets

Sun 1:00 PM EST

The best bet of the game for CHI @ NYJ is CHI ML +300. Our simulations expect this bet to win 35% of the time. This win percentage implies an expected value of $139 for every $100 bet.

The calculated optimal bet size is 3 units. Our models calculate this to be a +EV bet and consider it to be one of the top bets for Week 12.

Houston Texans @ Miami Dolphins

Sun 1:00 PM EST

The best bet of the game for HOU @ MIA is HOU ML +625. Our simulations expect this bet to win 23% of the time. This win percentage implies an expected value of $163 for every $100 bet.

The calculated optimal bet size is 2 units. Our models calculate this to be a +EV bet and consider it to be one of the top bets for Week 12.

Denver Broncos @ Carolina Panthers

Sun 1:00 PM EST

The best bet of the game for DEN @ CAR is DEN ML -110. Our simulations expect this bet to win 53% of the time. This win percentage implies an expected value of $101 for every $100 bet.

There are no bets in this game with a significant edge to the bettor.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Cleveland Browns

Sun 1:02 PM EST

The best bet of the game for TB @ CLE is CLE ML +150. Our simulations expect this bet to win 44% of the time. This win percentage implies an expected value of $108 for every $100 bet.

There are no bets in this game with a significant edge to the bettor.

Baltimore Ravens @ Jacksonville Jaguars

Sun 1:25 PM EST

The best bet of the game for BAL @ JAX is BAL -3.0 -120. Our simulations expect this bet to win 56% of the time. This win percentage implies an expected value of $102 for every $100 bet.

There are no bets in this game with a significant edge to the bettor.

Las Vegas Raiders @ Seattle Seahawks

Sun 4:05 PM EST

The best bet of the game for LV @ SEA is LV ML +170. Our simulations expect this bet to win 46% of the time. This win percentage implies an expected value of $124 for every $100 bet.

The calculated optimal bet size is 3 units. Our models calculate this to be a +EV bet and consider it to be one of the top bets for Week 12.

Los Angeles Chargers @ Arizona Cardinals

Sun 4:05 PM EST

The best bet of the game for LAC @ ARI is ARI +2.5 +100. Our simulations expect this bet to win 52% of the time. This win percentage implies an expected value of $103 for every $100 bet.

There are no bets in this game with a significant edge to the bettor.

New Orleans Saints @ San Francisco 49ers

Sun 4:25 PM EST

The best bet of the game for NO @ SF is NO ML +330. Our simulations expect this bet to win 35% of the time. This win percentage implies an expected value of $148 for every $100 bet.

The calculated optimal bet size is 3 units. Our models calculate this to be a +EV bet and consider it to be one of the top bets for Week 12.

Los Angeles Rams @ Kansas City Chiefs

Sun 4:25 PM EST

The best bet of the game for LAR @ KC is LAR ML +800. Our simulations expect this bet to win 27% of the time. This win percentage implies an expected value of $241 for every $100 bet.

The calculated optimal bet size is 4 units. Our models calculate this to be a +EV bet and consider it to be one of the top bets for Week 12.

Green Bay Packers @ Philadelphia Eagles

Sun 8:20 PM EST

The best bet of the game for GB @ PHI is GB ML +235. Our simulations expect this bet to win 40% of the time. This win percentage implies an expected value of $135 for every $100 bet.

The calculated optimal bet size is 3 units. Our models calculate this to be a +EV bet and consider it to be one of the top bets for Week 12.

Pittsburgh Steelers @ Indianapolis Colts

Mon 8:15 PM EST

The best bet of the game for PIT @ IND is PIT ML +120. Our simulations expect this bet to win 47% of the time. This win percentage implies an expected value of $102 for every $100 bet.

There are no bets in this game with a significant edge to the bettor.

Optimal Bets is not responsible for any decisions made, financial or otherwise, based on information provided by this website and application. Optimal Bets cannot guarantee the correctness of the information contained within our website and application.


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