MLB Best Bets of the Day

MLB Best Bets of the Day

Thursday, Sep 22, 2022

Optimal Bets uses proprietary algorithms to calculate the win percentage and expected value for O/Us, Spreads, and Moneylines.

We’ll go through each game and pick what our models calculate to be the best bet for that game. The best bet is the bet with the highest implied bet units. We use quarter Kelly Criterion to calculate the bet units. It’s possible there are no winning bets for the game which means the implied units for all bets will be 0. In that case, we default to the bet with the highest expected value even though it’s considered to be a losing bet. The best bets are dynamic based on the day's news and lock at the first pitch.

Here were the MLB Best Bets of the Day for Wednesday, Sep 21, 2022.



Los Angeles Angels @ Texas Rangers

Thu 2:05 PM EST

The best bet of the game for LAA @ TEX is LAA ML +150. Our simulations expect this bet to win 50% of the time. This win percentage implies an expected value of $124 for every $100 bet.

The calculated optimal bet size is 4 units. Our models calculate this to be a +EV bet and consider it to be one of the top bets of the day.

The projected starters are Michael Lorenzen for LAA and Martin Perez for TEX.

Minnesota Twins @ Kansas City Royals

Thu 2:10 PM EST

The best bet of the game for MIN @ KC is Over 8.0 -115. Our simulations expect this bet to win 55% of the time. This win percentage implies an expected value of $103 for every $100 bet.

There are no bets in this game with a significant edge to the bettor.

The projected starters are Josh Winder for MIN and Jonathan Heasley for KC.

San Francisco Giants @ Colorado Rockies

Thu 3:10 PM EST

The best bet of the game for SF @ COL is SF ML -120. Our simulations expect this bet to win 70% of the time. This win percentage implies an expected value of $128 for every $100 bet.

The calculated optimal bet size is 8 units. Our models calculate this to be a +EV bet and consider it to be one of the top bets of the day.

The projected starters are Jharel Cotton for SF and Jose Urena for COL.

Seattle Mariners @ Oakland Athletics

Thu 3:37 PM EST

The best bet of the game for SEA @ OAK is OAK +1.5 +120. Our simulations expect this bet to win 59% of the time. This win percentage implies an expected value of $129 for every $100 bet.

The calculated optimal bet size is 6 units. Our models calculate this to be a +EV bet and consider it to be one of the top bets of the day.

The projected starters are George Kirby for SEA and Adrian Martinez for OAK.

St Louis Cardinals @ San Diego Padres

Thu 4:10 PM EST

The best bet of the game for STL @ SD is SD -1.5 +135. Our simulations expect this bet to win 47% of the time. This win percentage implies an expected value of $110 for every $100 bet.

There are no bets in this game with a significant edge to the bettor.

The projected starters are Jack Flaherty for STL and Joe Musgrove for SD.

Chicago Cubs @ Pittsburgh Pirates

Thu 6:35 PM EST

The best bet of the game for CHC @ PIT is Over 7.5 -105. Our simulations expect this bet to win 56% of the time. This win percentage implies an expected value of $109 for every $100 bet.

The calculated optimal bet size is 2 units. Our models calculate this to be a +EV bet and consider it to be one of the top bets of the day.

The projected starters are Hayden Wesneski for CHC and Mitch Keller for PIT.

Toronto Blue Jays @ Tampa Bay Rays

Thu 6:40 PM EST

The best bet of the game for TOR @ TB is Over 7.5 -115. Our simulations expect this bet to win 60% of the time. This win percentage implies an expected value of $112 for every $100 bet.

The calculated optimal bet size is 3 units. Our models calculate this to be a +EV bet and consider it to be one of the top bets of the day.

The projected starters are Jose Berrios for TOR and Ryan Yarbrough for TB.

Milwaukee Brewers @ Cincinnati Reds

Thu 6:40 PM EST

The best bet of the game for MIL @ CIN is MIL ML -165. Our simulations expect this bet to win 65% of the time. This win percentage implies an expected value of $105 for every $100 bet.

The calculated optimal bet size is 2 units. Our models calculate this to be a +EV bet and consider it to be one of the top bets of the day.

The projected starters are Brandon Woodruff for MIL and Hunter Greene for CIN.

Houston Astros @ Baltimore Orioles

Thu 7:05 PM EST

The best bet of the game for HOU @ BAL is HOU ML -195. Our simulations expect this bet to win 71% of the time. This win percentage implies an expected value of $107 for every $100 bet.

The calculated optimal bet size is 3 units. Our models calculate this to be a +EV bet and consider it to be one of the top bets of the day.

The projected starters are Justin Verlander for HOU and Kyle Bradish for BAL.

Atlanta Braves @ Philadelphia Phillies

Thu 7:15 PM EST

The best bet of the game for ATL @ PHI is Over 7.5 +105. Our simulations expect this bet to win 51% of the time. This win percentage implies an expected value of $103 for every $100 bet.

There are no bets in this game with a significant edge to the bettor.

The projected starters are Max Fried for ATL and Ranger Suarez for PHI.

Boston Red Sox @ New York Yankees

Thu 7:15 PM EST

The best bet of the game for BOS @ NYY is BOS ML +130. Our simulations expect this bet to win 48% of the time. This win percentage implies an expected value of $109 for every $100 bet.

There are no bets in this game with a significant edge to the bettor.

The projected starters are Michael Wacha for BOS and Jameson Taillon for NYY.

Cleveland Guardians @ Chicago White Sox

Thu 8:10 PM EST

The best bet of the game for CLE @ CWS is CWS ML +135. Our simulations expect this bet to win 48% of the time. This win percentage implies an expected value of $113 for every $100 bet.

The calculated optimal bet size is 2 units. Our models calculate this to be a +EV bet and consider it to be one of the top bets of the day.

The projected starters are Shane Bieber for CLE and Johnny Cueto for CWS.

Arizona Diamondbacks @ Los Angeles Dodgers

Thu 10:10 PM EST

The best bet of the game for ARI @ LAD is Over 7.0 +100. Our simulations expect this bet to win 58% of the time. This win percentage implies an expected value of $116 for every $100 bet.

The calculated optimal bet size is 4 units. Our models calculate this to be a +EV bet and consider it to be one of the top bets of the day.

The projected starters are Zac Gallen for ARI and Julio Urias for LAD.

Optimal Bets is not responsible for any decisions made, financial or otherwise, based on information provided by this website and application. Optimal Bets cannot guarantee the correctness of the information contained within our website and application.


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