MLB Best Bets of the Day

MLB Best Bets of the Day

Wednesday, Sep 28, 2022

Optimal Bets uses proprietary algorithms to calculate the win percentage and expected value for O/Us, Spreads, and Moneylines.

We’ll go through each game and pick what our models calculate to be the best bet for that game. The best bet is the bet with the highest implied bet units. We use quarter Kelly Criterion to calculate the bet units. It’s possible there are no winning bets for the game which means the implied units for all bets will be 0. In that case, we default to the bet with the highest expected value even though it’s considered to be a losing bet. The best bets are dynamic based on the day's news and lock at the first pitch.

Here were the MLB Best Bets of the Day for Tuesday, Sep 27, 2022.



Cincinnati Reds @ Pittsburgh Pirates

Wed 12:35 PM EST

The best bet of the game for CIN @ PIT is CIN ML +100. Our simulations expect this bet to win 60% of the time. This win percentage implies an expected value of $120 for every $100 bet.

The calculated optimal bet size is 5 units. Our models calculate this to be a +EV bet and consider it to be one of the top bets of the day.

The projected starters are Luis Cessa for CIN and Bryse Wilson for PIT.

Tampa Bay Rays @ Cleveland Guardians

Wed 6:10 PM EST

The best bet of the game for TB @ CLE is TB ML +110. Our simulations expect this bet to win 54% of the time. This win percentage implies an expected value of $114 for every $100 bet.

The calculated optimal bet size is 3 units. Our models calculate this to be a +EV bet and consider it to be one of the top bets of the day.

The projected starters are Javy Guerra for TB and Triston McKenzie for CLE.

Kansas City Royals @ Detroit Tigers

Wed 6:40 PM EST

The best bet of the game for KC @ DET is Over 7.5 -115. Our simulations expect this bet to win 58% of the time. This win percentage implies an expected value of $108 for every $100 bet.

The calculated optimal bet size is 2 units. Our models calculate this to be a +EV bet and consider it to be one of the top bets of the day.

The projected starters are Daniel Lynch for KC and Garrett Hill for DET.

Atlanta Braves @ Washington Nationals

Wed 7:05 PM EST

The best bet of the game for ATL @ WSH is WSH +1.5 +105. Our simulations expect this bet to win 55% of the time. This win percentage implies an expected value of $113 for every $100 bet.

The calculated optimal bet size is 3 units. Our models calculate this to be a +EV bet and consider it to be one of the top bets of the day.

The projected starters are Jake Odorizzi for ATL and Josiah Gray for WSH.

New York Yankees @ Toronto Blue Jays

Wed 7:07 PM EST

The best bet of the game for NYY @ TOR is Over 7.0 -110. Our simulations expect this bet to win 58% of the time. This win percentage implies an expected value of $111 for every $100 bet.

The calculated optimal bet size is 3 units. Our models calculate this to be a +EV bet and consider it to be one of the top bets of the day.

The projected starters are Gerrit Cole for NYY and Mitch White for TOR.

Baltimore Orioles @ Boston Red Sox

Wed 7:10 PM EST

The best bet of the game for BAL @ BOS is BAL ML +115. Our simulations expect this bet to win 48% of the time. This win percentage implies an expected value of $102 for every $100 bet.

There are no bets in this game with a significant edge to the bettor.

The projected starters are Dean Kremer for BAL and Rich Hill for BOS.

Miami Marlins @ New York Mets

Wed 7:10 PM EST

The best bet of the game for MIA @ NYM is MIA ML +160. Our simulations expect this bet to win 43% of the time. This win percentage implies an expected value of $111 for every $100 bet.

There are no bets in this game with a significant edge to the bettor.

The projected starters are Jesus Luzardo for MIA and Taijuan Walker for NYM.

Philadelphia Phillies @ Chicago Cubs

Wed 7:40 PM EST

The best bet of the game for PHI @ CHC is CHC +1.5 -105. Our simulations expect this bet to win 63% of the time. This win percentage implies an expected value of $122 for every $100 bet.

The calculated optimal bet size is 5 units. Our models calculate this to be a +EV bet and consider it to be one of the top bets of the day.

The projected starters are Aaron Nola for PHI and Hayden Wesneski for CHC.

St Louis Cardinals @ Milwaukee Brewers

Wed 7:40 PM EST

The best bet of the game for STL @ MIL is MIL -1.5 +125. Our simulations expect this bet to win 50% of the time. This win percentage implies an expected value of $112 for every $100 bet.

The calculated optimal bet size is 2 units. Our models calculate this to be a +EV bet and consider it to be one of the top bets of the day.

The projected starters are Jose Quintana for STL and Brandon Woodruff for MIL.

Chicago White Sox @ Minnesota Twins

Wed 7:40 PM EST

The best bet of the game for CWS @ MIN is CWS ML -110. Our simulations expect this bet to win 54% of the time. This win percentage implies an expected value of $102 for every $100 bet.

There are no bets in this game with a significant edge to the bettor.

The projected starters are Johnny Cueto for CWS and Josh Winder for MIN.

Arizona Diamondbacks @ Houston Astros

Wed 8:10 PM EST

The best bet of the game for ARI @ HOU is ARI ML +145. Our simulations expect this bet to win 44% of the time. This win percentage implies an expected value of $107 for every $100 bet.

There are no bets in this game with a significant edge to the bettor.

The projected starters are Zac Gallen for ARI and Justin Verlander for HOU.

Oakland Athletics @ Los Angeles Angels

Wed 9:38 PM EST

The best bet of the game for OAK @ LAA is OAK ML +155. Our simulations expect this bet to win 44% of the time. This win percentage implies an expected value of $110 for every $100 bet.

There are no bets in this game with a significant edge to the bettor.

The projected starters are Adrian Martinez for OAK and Michael Lorenzen for LAA.

Los Angeles Dodgers @ San Diego Padres

Wed 9:40 PM EST

The best bet of the game for LAD @ SD is SD +1.5 -135. Our simulations expect this bet to win 60% of the time. This win percentage implies an expected value of $103 for every $100 bet.

There are no bets in this game with a significant edge to the bettor.

The projected starters are Julio Urias for LAD and Joe Musgrove for SD.

Texas Rangers @ Seattle Mariners

Wed 9:40 PM EST

The best bet of the game for TEX @ SEA is TEX ML +140. Our simulations expect this bet to win 45% of the time. This win percentage implies an expected value of $108 for every $100 bet.

There are no bets in this game with a significant edge to the bettor.

The projected starters are Martin Perez for TEX and George Kirby for SEA.

Colorado Rockies @ San Francisco Giants

Wed 9:45 PM EST

The best bet of the game for COL @ SF is SF -1.5 +130. Our simulations expect this bet to win 56% of the time. This win percentage implies an expected value of $129 for every $100 bet.

The calculated optimal bet size is 5 units. Our models calculate this to be a +EV bet and consider it to be one of the top bets of the day.

The projected starters are Jose Urena for COL and Shelby Miller for SF.

Optimal Bets is not responsible for any decisions made, financial or otherwise, based on information provided by this website and application. Optimal Bets cannot guarantee the correctness of the information contained within our website and application.


If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-800-GAMBLER.

Subscribe to our Newsletter


Mobile Apps on iOS